{"id":66542,"date":"2025-09-15T23:27:49","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T02:27:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.p31noticias.com.br\/?p=66542"},"modified":"2025-09-15T23:27:49","modified_gmt":"2025-09-16T02:27:49","slug":"exata-aprovacao-de-ibaneis-e-maioria-no-df-com-picos-no-lago-norte-e-desgaste-no-sudoeste-octogonal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.p31noticias.com.br\/?p=66542","title":{"rendered":"Exata: aprova\u00e7\u00e3o de Ibaneis \u00e9 maioria no DF, com picos no Lago Norte e desgaste no Sudoeste\/Octogonal"},"content":{"rendered":"

An\u00e1lise inicial<\/strong>
\nA nova pesquisa do\u00a0Instituto Exata<\/strong>\u00a0n\u00e3o \u00e9 apenas mais um levantamento de opini\u00e3o. Trata-se de um retrato que precisa ser\u00a0lido, relido, estudado e reestudado pelo meio pol\u00edtico<\/strong>. Os n\u00fameros n\u00e3o devem ser vistos como simples porcentagens de aprova\u00e7\u00e3o ou desaprova\u00e7\u00e3o, mas como um\u00a0mapa estrat\u00e9gico<\/strong>\u00a0que revela tend\u00eancias, aponta fortalezas e evidencia fragilidades do governo Ibaneis Rocha.<\/p>\n

O estudo mostra que, embora o governador mantenha a maioria de aprova\u00e7\u00e3o no Distrito Federal, os contrastes regionais, sociais e de \u00e1reas de atua\u00e7\u00e3o s\u00e3o gritantes. Isso significa que\u00a0cada ponto percentual traz um recado do eleitor<\/strong>. Para analistas, partidos e advers\u00e1rios, a pesquisa \u00e9 um\u00a0manual de leitura da realidade pol\u00edtica do DF<\/strong>, e ignor\u00e1-la seria um erro estrat\u00e9gico.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"Mapa regional da aprova\u00e7\u00e3o<\/h5>\n
Onde Ibaneis \u00e9 mais aprovado<\/h5>\n
    \n
  • Lago Norte<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013\u00a081,8%<\/strong>\u00a0aprovam<\/li>\n
  • Riacho Fundo I<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013\u00a080,0%<\/strong><\/li>\n
  • Jardim Bot\u00e2nico<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013\u00a079,2%<\/strong><\/li>\n
  • Vicente Pires<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013\u00a078,6%<\/strong><\/li>\n
  • Varj\u00e3o<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013\u00a070,0%<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Essas regi\u00f5es, em geral, relatam\u00a0alta visibilidade de obras, asfaltamento e interven\u00e7\u00f5es urbanas<\/strong>, fatores que ancoram a percep\u00e7\u00e3o de presen\u00e7a do governo.<\/p>\n

    Onde a reprova\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 mais alta<\/h5>\n
      \n
    • \u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n
    • \"\"Sudoeste\/Octogonal<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013\u00a072,7% desaprovam<\/strong>\u00a0(apenas 27,3% aprovam)<\/li>\n
    • Lago Sul<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013\u00a060,0% desaprovam<\/strong><\/li>\n
    • Brazl\u00e2ndia<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013\u00a055,0% desaprovam<\/strong>\u00a0(45,0% aprovam)<\/li>\n
    • Candangol\u00e2ndia<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013\u00a050,6% desaprovam<\/strong>\u00a0(45,1% aprovam)<\/li>\n
    • Gama<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013\u00a054,8% desaprovam<\/strong>\u00a0(44,0% aprovam)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Aqui pesa uma\u00a0cobran\u00e7a mais intensa por servi\u00e7os<\/strong>\u00a0e resultados cotidianos.<\/p>\n

      \n

      <\/h3>\n

      Evolu\u00e7\u00e3o recente por regi\u00e3o (fev \u2192 ago)<\/h5>\n

      \"\"Top crescimentos de aprova\u00e7\u00e3o:<\/p>\n

        \n
      • Varj\u00e3o<\/strong>:\u00a0+30,0 p.p.<\/strong><\/li>\n
      • Riacho Fundo I<\/strong>:\u00a0+26,7 p.p.<\/strong><\/li>\n
      • Lago Norte<\/strong>:\u00a0+21,8 p.p.<\/strong><\/li>\n
      • Jardim Bot\u00e2nico<\/strong>:\u00a0+20,9 p.p.<\/strong><\/li>\n
      • Arniqueiras<\/strong>:\u00a0+19,4 p.p.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Maiores quedas:<\/p>\n

          \n
        • Lago Sul<\/strong>:\u00a0\u201350,0 p.p.<\/strong><\/li>\n
        • S\u00e3o Sebasti\u00e3o<\/strong>:\u00a0\u201326,5 p.p.<\/strong><\/li>\n
        • Candangol\u00e2ndia<\/strong>:\u00a0\u201325,0 p.p.<\/strong><\/li>\n
        • Planaltina<\/strong>:\u00a0\u201316,3 p.p.<\/strong><\/li>\n
        • Parano\u00e1<\/strong>:\u00a0\u201311,1 p.p.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

           <\/p>\n

          A curva mostra\u00a0ganhos expressivos<\/strong>\u00a0em \u00e1reas de expans\u00e3o e\u00a0perdas<\/strong>\u00a0em regi\u00f5es elitizadas e em algumas cidades tradicionais da periferia.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

          \n
          Quem aprova mais (e menos): perfil do eleitor<\/h5>\n
          \"\"Religi\u00e3o<\/h5>\n
            \n
          • Evang\u00e9licos<\/strong>:\u00a060,2%<\/strong>\u00a0aprovam<\/li>\n
          • Cat\u00f3licos<\/strong>:\u00a055,6%<\/strong><\/li>\n
          • Esp\u00edritas<\/strong>:\u00a045,7%<\/strong><\/li>\n
          • Sem religi\u00e3o<\/strong>:\u00a044,6%<\/strong><\/li>\n
          • Outras religi\u00f5es<\/strong>:\u00a033,3%<\/strong>\u00a0aprovam (maior ceticismo)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

            Leitura:<\/strong>\u00a0a base evang\u00e9lica \u00e9\u00a0pilar de sustenta\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong>\u00a0do governador; os demais segmentos s\u00e3o mais cr\u00edticos.<\/p>\n

            G\u00eanero, idade, classe e escolaridade<\/h4>\n
              \n
            • Homens<\/strong>:\u00a063,3%<\/strong>\u00a0aprovam \u00d7\u00a0Mulheres<\/strong>:\u00a047,1%<\/strong>\u00a0\u2192\u00a0gap de g\u00eanero relevante<\/em><\/li>\n
            • Idade<\/strong>: picos em\u00a047\u201360<\/strong>\u00a0(60,8%<\/strong>) e\u00a025\u201335<\/strong>\u00a0(58,5%<\/strong>); mais baixo em\u00a016\u201324<\/strong>\u00a0(42,9%<\/strong>)<\/li>\n
            • Classe<\/strong>: melhor em\u00a0A (61,0%)<\/strong>\u00a0e\u00a0B (61,9%)<\/strong>; queda em\u00a0D (51,0%)<\/strong><\/li>\n
            • Escolaridade<\/strong>: maior entre\u00a0alfabetizados (63,3%)<\/strong>\u00a0e\u00a0fundamental (57,9%)<\/strong>;\u00a0superior<\/strong>\u00a0fica em\u00a052,7%<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

              Leitura:<\/strong>\u00a0Ibaneis performa melhor no\u00a0p\u00fablico masculino, de meia-idade e classes mais altas<\/strong>.\u00a0Mulheres e jovens<\/strong>\u00a0s\u00e3o p\u00fablicos a reconquistar.<\/p>\n

              \n
              \"\"O que o eleitor v\u00ea no GDF: \u00e1reas fortes e pontos a melhorar<\/h5>\n
              Setores com melhor avalia\u00e7\u00e3o<\/h5>\n
                \n
              • Obras<\/strong>:\u00a072,1%<\/strong>\u00a0consideram o governo atuante\/muito atuante<\/li>\n
              • Asfalto<\/strong>:\u00a050,6%<\/strong><\/li>\n
              • Mobilidade<\/strong>:\u00a041,5%<\/strong><\/li>\n
              • Transporte<\/strong>:\u00a038,8%<\/strong>\u00a0(faixa intermedi\u00e1ria)<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                Em v\u00e1rias RAs,\u00a0obras<\/strong>\u00a0batem patamares muito altos (ex.:\u00a0Sobradinho I 92,9%<\/strong>,\u00a0Jardim Bot\u00e2nico 83,3%<\/strong>,\u00a0\u00c1guas Claras 84,0%<\/strong>). Em\u00a0asfalto<\/strong>, destaques locais como\u00a0Lago Norte 90,9%<\/strong>,\u00a0Candangol\u00e2ndia 80,0%<\/strong>\u00a0e\u00a0Vicente Pires 78,6%<\/strong>\u00a0refor\u00e7am o efeito \u201cantes\/depois\u201d.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

                <\/h3>\n
                Setores que precisam melhorar<\/h5>\n
                  \n
                • Sa\u00fade<\/strong>:\u00a010,4%<\/strong>\u00a0avaliam positivamente<\/li>\n
                • Educa\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong>:\u00a027,2%<\/strong>\u00a0positivo (68,2% avaliam como nada\/pouco atuante)<\/li>\n
                • Seguran\u00e7a<\/strong>:\u00a037,1%<\/strong>\u00a0positivo \u00d7\u00a061,8%<\/strong>\u00a0negativo<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                  Leitura:<\/strong>\u00a0a\u00a0infraestrutura sustenta a imagem<\/strong>, mas os\u00a0servi\u00e7os sociais<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 sobretudo a sa\u00fade \u2014 precisam de avan\u00e7os concretos para refor\u00e7ar a confian\u00e7a popular.<\/p>\n

                  \n
                  Por que alguns lugares aprovam mais do que outros?<\/h5>\n
                    \n
                  1. Visibilidade de entregas<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Onde o cidad\u00e3o\u00a0enxerga<\/strong>\u00a0obra e asfalto, a avalia\u00e7\u00e3o sobe.<\/li>\n
                  2. Expectativa vs. servi\u00e7o<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Em \u00e1reas mais exigentes,\u00a0a r\u00e9gua \u00e9 alta<\/strong>; sa\u00fade e educa\u00e7\u00e3o pesam mais.<\/li>\n
                  3. Composi\u00e7\u00e3o sociodemogr\u00e1fica<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 P\u00fablico\u00a0evang\u00e9lico, masculino, de meia-idade e classe m\u00e9dia\/alta<\/strong>\u00a0puxa a aprova\u00e7\u00e3o.\u00a0Mulheres e jovens<\/strong>\u00a0tendem a avaliar de maneira mais dura.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
                    \n

                    Pistas t\u00e1ticas para o governo<\/h4>\n
                      \n
                    • Defender o legado vis\u00edvel<\/strong>: comunica\u00e7\u00e3o forte das entregas (antes\/depois).<\/li>\n
                    • Avan\u00e7ar na sa\u00fade<\/strong>: reduzir filas, refor\u00e7ar aten\u00e7\u00e3o b\u00e1sica, dar visibilidade \u00e0s melhorias.<\/li>\n
                    • Seguran\u00e7a e Educa\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong>: mostrar resultados pr\u00e1ticos (redu\u00e7\u00e3o de \u00edndices, apoio escolar).<\/li>\n
                    • Comunica\u00e7\u00e3o direcionada<\/strong>: foco em\u00a0mulheres, jovens e regi\u00f5es cr\u00edticas<\/strong>.<\/li>\n
                    • Consolida\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong>: manter alta aprova\u00e7\u00e3o em Lago Norte, Riacho Fundo I, Jardim Bot\u00e2nico, Vicente Pires e Varj\u00e3o.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
                      \n

                      Quadros-chave (para fixar)<\/h4>\n
                        \n
                      • Top 5 aprova\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong>: Lago Norte, Riacho Fundo I, Jardim Bot\u00e2nico, Vicente Pires, Varj\u00e3o.<\/li>\n
                      • Top 5 reprova\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong>: Sudoeste\/Octogonal, Lago Sul, Brazl\u00e2ndia, Gama, Candangol\u00e2ndia.<\/li>\n
                      • Quem mais aprova<\/strong>: evang\u00e9licos, homens, 47\u201360 anos, classes A\/B.<\/li>\n
                      • O que funciona<\/strong>: obras, asfalto, mobilidade.<\/li>\n
                      • O que precisa avan\u00e7ar<\/strong>: sa\u00fade, educa\u00e7\u00e3o, seguran\u00e7a.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
                        \n
                        Moral da hist\u00f3ria<\/h5>\n

                        A pesquisa do\u00a0Instituto Exata<\/strong>\u00a0mostra um governo\u00a0aprovado pela maioria<\/strong>, mas que precisa ajustar o foco em setores essenciais. Ibaneis Rocha tem for\u00e7a em obras e infraestrutura, mas a\u00a0sa\u00fade segue como prioridade de melhoria<\/strong>, ao lado da seguran\u00e7a e educa\u00e7\u00e3o. O governador tem o mapa a seu favor, mas precisa calibrar discurso e a\u00e7\u00e3o para que a popula\u00e7\u00e3o veja, al\u00e9m das obras,\u00a0um governo presente nos servi\u00e7os do dia a dia<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

                        Instituto Exata<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                        An\u00e1lise inicial A nova pesquisa do\u00a0Instituto Exata\u00a0n\u00e3o \u00e9 apenas mais um levantamento de opini\u00e3o. Trata-se de um retrato que precisa ser\u00a0lido, relido, estudado e reestudado pelo meio pol\u00edtico. Os n\u00fameros n\u00e3o devem ser vistos como simples porcentagens de aprova\u00e7\u00e3o ou desaprova\u00e7\u00e3o, mas como um\u00a0mapa estrat\u00e9gico\u00a0que revela tend\u00eancias, aponta fortalezas e evidencia fragilidades do governo Ibaneis […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":66543,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,57],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-66542","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-brasilia","8":"category-politica"},"yoast_head":"\nExata: aprova\u00e7\u00e3o de Ibaneis \u00e9 maioria no DF, com picos no Lago Norte e desgaste no Sudoeste\/Octogonal - P31<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.p31noticias.com.br\/?p=66542\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Exata: aprova\u00e7\u00e3o de Ibaneis \u00e9 maioria no DF, com picos no Lago Norte e desgaste no Sudoeste\/Octogonal\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"An\u00e1lise inicial A nova pesquisa do\u00a0Instituto Exata\u00a0n\u00e3o \u00e9 apenas mais um levantamento de opini\u00e3o. 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